So the last few days I am reading more and more blogs/newspaper-sites a new georgian war might be ahead of us. For example from the pro-russia bloggers Stanislav Mishin and Rick Docksai; ofcourse claiming it will be Saakashvili who will instigate it, since South Ossetia and Abkhazia still need to be under Georgian ruling and this time he might get help from NATO, as NATO is having excercises in Georgia. Also from friends of mine I understood the gossip in tbilisi tells Misha (saakashvili) is planning a new war: 1. because he wants SO and Abkazia back and 2. to gain more support. Ofcourse this gossip comes from friends who are pro-opposition, claiming that if Misha will not resign a new war will happen.
As you can understand, I am wondering who does what. As we all know, the relationship between Russia and Georgia hasn't been that good lately. A demonstration would be a perfect moment for Russia to destabalize the country and invade it, blaiming Misha for it; the reason I am saying this because I find it quite disturbing Nashi youth were discovered without visa on georgian territory allegedly to start some violant incidents at the demonstration and provoke forcible action by the police/military against opposition. Furthermore, because Russia has increased it's military in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the past few days.
I am starting to get a bit worried by it all, let's hope it's just political macho behaviour from both sides and nothing serious will happen.
5 opmerkingen:
As to concerns for a new Georgia-Russia conflict: There is one huge difference between the situation today and that of pre 07/08/08.
Tbilisi can no longer count on Russia not to interfer. The option of a blitzkrieg is off the table.
Russia will not seize Georgia proper. It could have done so in August, but didn't. Moreover, there is no GE pro Russian opposition to replace Saak with.
All Moscow will want to do is hold on to Abkhazia and SO and hope for a new GE president who understands the vital geopolitical and scioeconomic interests of at least a working relationship with Russia.
I wouldn't be concerned. This whatever guys like Felgenhauer will continue to ramp up. And despite NATO's bluntness and heated reactions from the likes of Rogozin.
Groet, Joera (they guy whose twitter thingy called Russiawatchers, you just signed up for)
Inge, I think you are right to be concerned, especially since the NATO decision to go ahead with the war games. Talk about red rag to a bull.
Inge, I think your concerns are valid enough to worry. Ever since the close of the August War, separatist and Russian forces have sought to fabricate a number of situations as 'evidence' of continued Georgian 'aggression.' Suffice to say, no objective party has validated any of these events, but there is a worry that Moscow is building a portfolio as cassus belli for renewed aggression.
The Nashi incident, Russian military maneuvers in the separatist regions, and large Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea make it all even more concerning. Particularly concerning to me are the naval exercises, which include amphibious ships capable of carrying landing troops that would bypass the geographic chokeholds in South Ossetia and Abxazia. Add that to Sergei Lavrov's suggestion that Turkey 'retake' Adjara and the Kremlin's decision to withdraw 20,000 troops from Chechnya ... and you have a troubling cocktail for possible renewed aggression. It seems that Russia might just be waiting for things to fall apart in Georgia. Unfortunately, they are being helped along by an inchoate and single-minded Opposition, save for Alasania and Targamadze.
Still, I am hopeful that this is only saber rattling by a shaken Russia. Russia's economy has been savaged by the recession far more than Georgia's has by the downturn and the war combined. It remains to be seen if Russia would be willing to risk further economic alienation and decline at a time of economic and increasing social instability. Another war could be an opening for greater destabilization in Russia's far east, which is already acting increasingly brazen against Kremlin control. At the same time, a country is often seen as most vulnerable when it's in decline ...
inge, most of those sources seem pretty dubious...
ben, if you refer to the pro russia sources, then you're correct, though i was just pointing out the probable atmosphere in russia, believe me that is the main opinion in pro-russian circles.
the other sources are highly credible: james town foundation and especially vladimir socor are highly respected as you probably are aware.
And ofcourse no doubt about bbc,civil.ge and ny-times as for their objectivity.
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